Central bank policy, inflation prints, employment data, and trade flows — translated into the things that move portfolios. Daily commentary from a desk of macro economists who used to sit on a trading floor.
Headline CPI is back below 3% but core services inflation has barely moved in eighteen months. We decompose what's keeping the disinflation glide path so flat — wages in healthcare and accommodation, owner-equivalent rent measurement lag, and the geometry of how the Fed's preferred PCE measure responds to housing differently than CPI does.
Goods deflation is over. The disinflation tailwind that drove headline CPI from 9% to 3% has largely run its course. Goods prices are flat year-over-year again.
Owner-equivalent rent remains the single largest contributor to core CPI, but real-time rental data suggests this measure will continue to grind lower through Q3.
Wage growth in services is now the binding constraint. Until ECI prints below 3.5% annualized, the Fed's path to 2% relies on hope.
From central-bank decisions to PMI prints, every piece is timestamped, sourced, and updated as data revisions land. Filter by region or theme.
Major economic data prints with consensus expectations, our forecast, and the implied market sensitivity. Hover any event for our pre-print analysis.
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A weekly macro dispatch — every major data release, every central-bank decision, every cross-asset implication. About 1,200 words, twice a week if the data warrants it.